Well, we’re halfway through the year. Seems like a good time to check in on the predictions I made six months ago.
(hit)1. Cingular will disappear.
Thanks, at least in part to the push around the iPhone (or maybe I’m supposed to call it the whyPhone…), the Cingular name has already disappeared from all official company uses.
(pending)2. Sprint Nextel Corp. will launch WiMax in at least one market.
Sprint is still planning to have at least a couple of markets operational by year end, but we certainly can’t claim this one as a “hit” yet.
(miss – so far)3. Verizon Wireless will start moving away from ?network? messaging.
Verizon’s still hanging their hat on that old tired “most reliable network” claim….
(pending) 4. Most cellphones will include at least a 2Mpixel camera.
A quick survey of phones on the Sprint website uncovers 3 VGA camera models, 10 models with a 1.3MP camera, and just 2 with 2.0MP cameras. This one’s not looking good!
(hit) 5. The breakout phone of the year will be popular because of usability, not style.
There’s some phone that was released Friday that seems to have gotten just a teeny tiny bit of attention… I guess you could call it the “breakout phone of the year” (at least so far…).
That particular phone seems to have gotten lots of attention for its usability, although I’m guessing style might also have something to do with it to.
I’ll go ahead and claim it as a hit.
(50% hit) 6. People watching TV or downloading/streaming music on their phones will no longer seem fantastic.
That phone I just mentioned seems to have brought a lot of attention to the ability to play music on your cellphone. I think it’s safe to claim the “music” part of this prediction a hit.
That same phone has video playing capabilities, and Verizon has made a big push this year with a new TV service. Sprint continues with the strong mobile TV offers that have led the industry for years. Despite all that, watching TV on your cellphone isn’t yet considered mainstream.
(pending) 7. At least one major consumer electronics company will announce mobile bandwidth built into a consumer product.
I’m guessing you won’t let me claim Apple on this one…
(pending) 8. Context will begin showing up in an increasing number of mobile applications.
Good progress here, but mostly in relatively obscure applications. I’m still hoping for a good mass market success story before the year is out.
(partial) 9. Clearwire will offer mobile voice over WiMax in at least one market.
In May, Clearwire issued a press release about their trial of Mobile WiMax in a Portland suburb: ?The successful completion of the first phase of our mobile WiMAX trial is a significant milestone in our efforts to commercially deploy true mobile broadband services in the U.S.,? said Scott Richardson, Clearwire chief strategy officer…. ?By demonstrating initial performance consistent with the WiMAX industry standards, we are making great progress in our ability to evolve our networks to take advantage of the benefits of a standards-based technology for future Clearwire subscribers.?
So, I’ll claim a “hit” on the “mobile” part.
In the middle of 2006, Clearwire?s press releases emphasized Voice over IP over Clearwire?s fixed WiMax services.
I’m still guessing they will get “mobile” plus “VoIP” working together as a ?mobile voice? offer by the end of 2007.
(almost) 10. This blog will be significantly higher profile.
I set the goal that blog traffic for December 2007 would be triple what it was in December 2006. I use FeedBurner to track subscribers. In June 2007, there 2.9 times as many average daily subscribers to the Law-of-Mobility blog as the average number of daily subscribers last December. I’m hopeful that we can push it over the 3.0 goalline in the next six months.
Bottom line: So two “hits”, a 90% hit, and two half hits for a total of 3.9/10 halfway through the year. I’ll have to pick up the pace in the second half!