Three-quarters of a year

Well, we’re three-quarters through the year. Seems like a good time to check in on the predictions I made nine months ago.

(hit)1. Cingular will disappear.
Cingular who?

(pending)2. Sprint Nextel Corp. will launch WiMax in at least one market.
Sprint keeps turning up the volume on WiMax. Chicago will be one of the first markets launced and Motorola (Sprint’s partner in Chicago) has already demoed a working network there.

(miss – so far)3. Verizon Wireless will start moving away from ?network? messaging.
Verizon’s still hanging their hat on that old tired “most reliable network” claim….

(pending) 4. Most cellphones will include at least a 2Mpixel camera.
A quick survey of 15 camera phones on the Sprint website uncovers 3 VGA camera models, 10 models with a 1.3MP camera, and just 2 with 2.0MP cameras. This one’s not looking good!

(hit) 5. The breakout phone of the year will be popular because of usability, not style.
Maybe you’ve heard of the iPhone?

(promising) 6. People watching TV or downloading/streaming music on their phones will no longer seem fantastic.
Music phones (thanks Apple) have clearly become mainstream. There also have been meaningful advances in mobile TV.

(pending) 7. At least one major consumer electronics company will announce mobile bandwidth built into a consumer product.
Momentum is building. Will a product announcement come before year end?

(pending) 8. Context will begin showing up in an increasing number of mobile applications.
Search, social networking, travel guides, etc. Momentum is building.

(partial) 9. Clearwire will offer mobile voice over WiMax in at least one market.
In May, Clearwire issued a press release about their trial of Mobile WiMax in a Portland suburb: ?The successful completion of the first phase of our mobile WiMAX trial is a significant milestone in our efforts to commercially deploy true mobile broadband services in the U.S.,? said Scott Richardson, Clearwire chief strategy officer…. ?By demonstrating initial performance consistent with the WiMAX industry standards, we are making great progress in our ability to evolve our networks to take advantage of the benefits of a standards-based technology for future Clearwire subscribers.?

So, I’ll claim a “hit” on the “mobile” part.

Clearwire has been working the “phone” part back into their story as well, for example this September press release: “Clearwire Corporation (NASDAQ: CLWR) is unwiring Nashville with the introduction of its next-generation wireless broadband solution.? The company announced today the official launch of its wireless high-speed Internet access and phone service to the city, its first market deployment in the state of Tennessee.”

I’m still guessing they will get “mobile” plus “phone” working together as a ?mobile voice? offer by the end of 2007.

(hit) 10. This blog will be significantly higher profile.
I set the goal that blog traffic for December 2007 would be triple what it was in December 2006. I use FeedBurner to track subscribers. In September 2007, there 3.3 times as many average daily subscribers to the Law-of-Mobility blog as the average number of daily subscribers last December.

Bottom line: So three “hits” and two that are likely to be misses.? I’m guessing three or four of the remainder will come through by year end. So, hopefully I’ll end up better than 50%.

Now playing: Bryan Duncan – Paradise

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