2007 Predictions Round-up

We’ve finally reached the end of 2007, it’s time to see how I did on the predictions I made twelve months ago.

(hit) 1. Cingular will disappear.
Cingular who?

(hit) 2. Sprint Nextel Corp. will launch WiMax in at least one market.
It may be a soft launch, but Chicago, Baltimore, and Washington are live.

(miss) 3. Verizon Wireless will start moving away from ?network? messaging.
Verizon’s still hanging their hat on that old tired “most reliable network” claim….

(hit) 4. Most cellphones will include at least a 2Mpixel camera.
According to a report from Strategy Analytics, 90 new handsets hit the global market in August 2007. Of those, 79 were cameraphones and 49 had at least a 2Mpixel camera.

(hit) 5. The breakout phone of the year will be popular because of usability, not style.
Dean Bubley recently called out the devices that he thought defined 2007. Most notable in his list were Nokia’s N95 and the Apple iPhone. Both are very attractive phones, but what Dean focuses on are features and usability. Clearly the iPhone has driven tremendous activity within the industry this year, with all competitors trying to match it – but unlike the RAZR in recent years, what was being sought was functionality and usability, not style. This one’s a solid hit.

(hit) 6. People watching TV or downloading/streaming music on their phones will no longer seem fantastic.
Mobile TV hasn’t yet been as big of a hit as folks had hoped for, but the iPhone has made it not only acceptable, but even cool to listen to music and watch video on a cellphone.

(hit) 7. At least one major consumer electronics company will announce mobile bandwidth built into a consumer product.
Thank you Amazon. The Kindle may not have received rave reviews when it was introduced in November, but it was acknowledged as “one the first mainstream consumer electronics device we’ve seen that is not a computer and not a phone but which still connects to a mobile broadband network.”

(miss) 8. Context will begin showing up in an increasing number of mobile applications.
Search, social networking, travel guides, etc. Momentum is building. Big bets were especially placed on location based capabilities. I can’t quite count this as a hit, but the momentum is in the right direction.

(miss) 9. Clearwire will offer mobile voice over WiMax in at least one market.
Portable is not the same as mobile. In an announcement earlier this month, the company described their service this way: “Clearwire Corporation announced today the official launch of its wireless high-speed Internet access and phone service to the Charlotte area with the introduction of its next-generation wireless broadband solution. The service eliminates the confines of traditional cable or telephone wiring, allowing customers to connect at home, a local coffeehouse, the office, park or virtually anywhere else in the Clearwire service area. Charlotte residents and businesses now have the opportunity to receive a fast, simple, portable, reliable and affordable alternative to traditional dial-up, cable and DSL.”

(hit) 10. This blog will be significantly higher profile.
I set the goal that blog traffic for December 2007 would be triple what it was in December 2006. I use FeedBurner to track subscribers. For the first 19 days of December 2007, there 3.9 times as many average daily subscribers to the Law-of-Mobility blog as the average number of daily subscribers for the same period last December.

Bottom line: Seven out of ten ain’t bad. I hope I can do as well this coming year!

Now playing: Monroe Jones – Christmas Scratch

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